【尼泊爾大地震 一個預警會發生的惡夢】文： 場邊故事
「過去十多年以金錢與汗水的龐大代價換來的高速發展，將在40秒內毁於一旦。」這不是尼泊爾大地震的事後孔明，而是4年前專家的警告。各地的專家多年來苦口婆心，指南亞地區只着眼發展卻漠視建築安全，遺禍極大。最近的警告，才不足兩周前，一語成讖。人命終不及發展、財產來得重要。
尼泊爾昨天發生黎克特制7.8級大地震，震央鄰近首都加德滿都（Kathmandu），是該國逾80年來最強地震，大量建築物被夷平，毗鄰的印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和中國西藏都有震動。地震傷亡數字不斷上升，大量居民被掩埋仍未發掘，生死未卜。至今已確定的已造成至少1,805人死亡，另有4,718人受傷。
4年前喜馬拉亞山區6.8級地震奪去逾一百條人命後，專家已多次敲響警鐘。南亞是地球上地震最常見的地區，八個國家中有六個位於地震活躍帶之上，包括尼泊爾、巴基斯坦、阿富汗、孟加拉及不丹。每年有十萬次小型地震，每25年就來一次超強的8級地震。
然而過去廿年地區急速發展，規管不足的建築物如雨後春筍拔地而起。房屋不單沒有為防備瀕密地震加強防震措施，連一般的規格也不符合；漠視消防及緊急救援設施的投資；密集人口；沒有規劃卻急速擴張城市等等，都是首都城市被地震重創的罪魁禍首。
「是建築物殺人，不是地震。」聯合國專家早已警告。
當地的繼承法更令問題火上加油，法例要求物業要平均分配給每一名兒子，一幢民居被薄牆分割成窄長空間極度不足的數間屋，再在上加建的情況隨處可見。
然而過去廿年地區急速發展，規管不足的建築物如雨後春筍拔地而起。房屋不單沒有為防備瀕密地震加強防震措施，連一般的規格也不符合；漠視消防及緊急救援設施的投資；密集人口；沒有規劃卻急速擴張城市等等，都是首都城市被地震重創的罪魁禍首。
「是建築物殺人，不是地震。」聯合國專家早已警告。
當地的繼承法更令問題火上加油，法例要求物業要平均分配給每一名兒子，一幢民居被薄牆分割成窄長空間極度不足的數間屋，再在上加建的情況隨處可見。
南亞城市極度密集少有公共空間，當建築物倒塌時，僥倖逃出的想找地方避難也沒有。部分城市的建築物更是起在泛濫的河床上，不堪一擊。
在尼泊爾與不丹等很多南亞國家，接連山區的基建嚴重不足，發生災難時救援隊要多日才能到達偏遠災區。
各地的地震專家不足兩周前才齊集加德滿都提出警告，「每年人口增長達 6.5%，加德滿都是全世界最密集的城市之一，居民每天在愈來愈大的地震威脅中生活。」
在尼泊爾與不丹等很多南亞國家，接連山區的基建嚴重不足，發生災難時救援隊要多日才能到達偏遠災區。
各地的地震專家不足兩周前才齊集加德滿都提出警告，「每年人口增長達 6.5%，加德滿都是全世界最密集的城市之一，居民每天在愈來愈大的地震威脅中生活。」
「像八級的大地震隨時降臨，南亞的困境是根本無力處理。」尼泊爾紅十字會曾經研究，若加德滿都山谷發生8級地震，最少會有4萬人喪命，9萬人受傷，催毁六成房屋讓一百萬人無家可歸。
警告還只是警告，首都加德滿都住了150萬人，但只有8架消防車，大部分已是30年前的老爺貨。
警告還只是警告，首都加德滿都住了150萬人，但只有8架消防車，大部分已是30年前的老爺貨。
政府及財團要發展漠視市民安全；小市民也要為生存爭扎應付近憂而忘遠慮。「住在加德滿都有很多更緊逼的問題困擾，空氣、食水污染；擠逼的交通；以及更根本的貧窮生存問題。」劍橋大學地震專家James Jackson不足兩周前說，「然而地震的威脅不會消失，是一個隨時出現的惡夢。我們只是與時間競賽」
昨天，尼泊爾輸了。天佑災民。
An earthquake foretold: Nepal’s ‘big one’ long predicted
Geology, urbanization, poverty and the absence of building codes all contributed to Nepal’s extreme vulnerability to an earthquake.
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Emergency rescue workers carry a victim on a stretcher after Dharara tower collapsed on April 25, 2015 in Kathmandu, Nepal.
Nepal’s devastating earthquake was the disaster experts knew was coming.
Just a week ago, about 50 earthquake and social scientists from around the world came to Kathmandu, Nepal, to figure out how to get this poor, congested, overdeveloped, shoddily built area to prepare better for the big one, a repeat of the 1934 temblor that levelled this city. They knew they were racing against the clock, but they didn’t know when what they feared would strike.
“It was sort of a nightmare waiting to happen,” said seismologist James Jackson, head of the earth sciences department at the University of Cambridge in England. “Physically and geologically, what happened is exactly what we thought would happen.”
But he didn’t expect the massive quake that struck Saturday to happen so soon. The magnitude 7.8 earthquake killed at least 1,400 people and caused widespread destruction.
“I was walking through that very area where that earthquake was and I thought at the very time that the area was heading for trouble,” said Jackson, lead scientist for Earthquakes Without Frontiers, a group that tries to improve Asian countries’ capacity to bounce back from these disasters.
A Kathmandu earthquake has long been feared, not just because of the natural seismic fault, but because of the local human conditions that could make it worse.
The same degree of shaking can have bigger effects on different parts of the globe because of building construction and population, and that’s something the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) calculates ahead of time. So the same level of severe shaking that would cause the deaths of 10 to 30 people per million residents in California could cause the deaths of 1,000 people or more per million residents in Nepal, and up to 10,000 people per million residents in parts of Pakistan, India, Iran and China, said USGS seismologist David Wald.
While the trigger of the disaster is natural, with an earthquake, “the consequences are very much man-made,” Jackson said. Except for landslides, which in this case are a serious problem, “it’s buildings that kill people, not earthquakes,” Jackson said. If you lived in a flat desert with no water, an earthquake wouldn’t harm you, but then, few people want to live there.
“The real problem in Asia is how people have concentrated in dangerous places,” Jackson said.
Kathmandu was warned, first by the Earth itself: this is the fifth significant quake there in the last 205 years, including the massive one in 1934.
“They knew they had a problem but it was so large they didn’t where to start, how to start,” said Hari Ghi, Southeast Asia regional co-ordinator for Geohazards International, a group that works on worldwide quake risks. Ghi, Jackson and Wald said Nepal was making progress on reducing its vulnerability to earthquakes, but not quickly or big enough.
Ghi’s group recently updated a late-1990s report summarizing the risks in the Kathmandu Valley.
“With an annual population growth rate of 6.5 per cent and one of the highest urban densities in the world, the 1.5 million people living in the Kathmandu Valley were clearly facing a serious and growing earthquake risk,” the report said, laying out “the problem” the valley faces. “It was also clear that the next large earthquake to strike near the Valley would cause significantly greater loss of life, structural damage, and economic hardship than past earthquakes had inflicted.”
For years, there were no building codes and rampant development, allowing homes and other structures to be built without any regard to earthquakes, the report said. There are now building codes, but that doesn’t help the older structures, and the codes aren’t especially strong, Ghi said.
The situation is made worse because of local inheritance laws that require property be split equally among all sons, Jackson said. That often means buildings are split vertically among brothers, making very thin, rickety homes that need more space — so people add insecure living space on additional floors, he said.
“The construction is appalling in Kathmandu,” Jackson said.
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