香港大学李嘉诚医学院公共卫生学院的胡国章教授在国际顶级医学期刊《柳叶刀》（Lancet） 发文
截至2020年1月25日（一周前）， 武汉已有近7.6万人被感染了新型冠状病毒，武汉感染人数的倍增时间为6.4天 ，R0为2.68，即1个感染患者将传染给2.68个人。
武汉依次分别向重庆， 北京，上海，广州和深圳分别输入了 461个，113个，98个，111个和80个新型肺炎感染患者。
如果2019-nCoV的可传播性在各地以及随着时间的推移都相似，则可以推断， 多个主要城市（北京，上海，广州，深圳和重庆等）的疫情已经呈指数增长，而这些城市的疫情爆发时间会比武汉疫情爆发时间大约滞后1-2周。
在没有立即采取大量公共卫生干预措施的情况下，进一步的国际播种和随后在当地流行病的流行可能成为必然 。按照目前的趋势， 如果没有缓解措施，2019-nCoV可能会成为全球流行病。
应在受影响地区认真，立即采取实质性甚至严厉的限制人口流动的措施，以及通过取消群众集会，关闭学校和开展在家工作来大幅度降低人口内部接触率的策略 。
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
Coronavirus: Five things to know
What is it and how can you protect yourself?
MICHELLE CHAN, Nikkei staff writerJANUARY 24, 2020 20:05 JST UPDATED ON JANUARY 28, 2020 13:25 JST
HONG KONG -- A new form of respiratory virus -- originating in the central Chinese city of Wuhan -- has spread further in Asia and beyond, with cases confirmed in Sri Lanka, Germany, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the U.S., France, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Singapore, Nepal, Malaysia, Australia, Canada and Cambodia.
The local government in Wuhan is working quickly to build an emergency medical center within days to treat patients suffering from the newly identified disease, widely known as Wuhan pneumonia.
While the World Health Organization said on Thursday that China faced an "emergency" situation, it decided against declaring a global health emergency, citing limited cases outside of China despite evidence of human-to-human transmission. Keep up to date on the latest coronavirus news here.
Here are five things you need to know about the new coronavirus.
What is the coronavirus and how does it spread?
Chinese officials have identified the cause of the pneumonia as a new strain of coronavirus from the same family as severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. Patients infected with the new virus typically show symptoms such as fever, coughing and breathing difficulties, with acute respiratory distress syndrome in severe cases.
How the virus spread to humans is unclear, but both the World Health Organization and Chinese officials regard an animal source as most likely. Chinese investigators have confirmed that most of the initial patients visited a seafood and wildlife market in Wuhan, which was shut down in early January. The first case appeared last month in the city.
China announced a lockdown on Wuhan and other cities. What does that mean, and is it feasible?
Chinese authorities have imposed a travel ban on Wuhan and 14 other cities in Hubei province since Jan. 23, shutting down flights, trains and highways into and out of those cities, as well as suspending intracity transportation, including subways, buses and ferries. The unprecedented measure means that residents in those 15 cities in Hubei province are held in de facto quarantine, the state-run Hubei Daily reported.
It remains unclear how effective these measures will be, as the peak travel period for the Lunar New Year holiday began earlier this week. Some estimates say that over 3 million people in Wuhan, a city of 11 million, have already left for holiday travel.
"Some people carrying the virus may not show any symptoms at an early stage. They could have traveled across the country or overseas already," Guan Yi, a professor of virology at the University of Hong Kong told Caixin on Thursday. "I think we have already missed the golden timing for disease control."
What lessons has China learned from its experience with SARS?
China drew criticism internationally for its attempt to cover up and underreport SARS cases 17 years ago. The virus eventually spread to 29 countries, resulting in over 8,400 cases of infection and 813 deaths, according to the WHO.
This time, China appears to have responded more swiftly and proactively by identifying the pathogen in a few weeks since the first reported case emerged, said Gabriel Leung, a public health professor at the University of Hong Kong who led SARS studies in 2003. It has also shared the genetic sequence of the virus with health authorities around the world.
However, information transparency remains a major problem. Public awareness for the novel disease had been low in China until Jan. 17, when a sudden surge of infected patients was announced by local health officials. That was followed by President Xi Jinping's remark that it is "extremely crucial" to take every possible measure to combat the new coronavirus. Before that, online discussions on the virus had been contained, with eight people detained for "spreading false rumors" on the internet.
Police officers wearing masks check a car for smuggled wild animals at an expressway toll station following the outbreak of a new coronavirus in Wuhan on Jan. 24. © Reuters
How are foreign governments and businesses responding?
Governments around the globe, including Australia, the U.S., the U.K. and many others in Asia, have issued travel alerts, and increased temperature and health screenings at borders and airports. Taiwan has denied entry to all people arriving from Wuhan and suspended all tour groups to mainland China. Meanwhile, North Korea has closed its borders.
Airlines including Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific Airways, China Airlines of Taiwan, Malaysia's AirAsia and other Asian carriers have suspended flights to Wuhan. In Hong Kong, more than 2,600 tours to mainland China during the Lunar New Year were canceled.
Many companies have advised against business trips to parts of China. Smartphone maker Huawei Technologies postponed its annual developers' conference in the southern city of Shenzhen, which was planned for mid-February. Macao's leader, Ho Iat-seng, said this week that he "could not rule out" shutting down all of the casinos in the territory if the situation worsens.
What should people do to protect themselves?
The WHO recommends frequently washing hands with soap and water or using an alcohol-based hand rub; covering the mouth and nose with a flexed elbow or tissue when coughing and sneezing; avoiding close contact with people who have a fever and cough; and avoiding direct unprotected contact with live animals at markets. Those who develop fever, cough or difficulty in breathing should seek medical care.
"The consumption of raw or undercooked animal products should be avoided," the WHO also says. "Raw meat, milk or animal organs should be handled with care, to avoid cross-contamination with uncooked foods, as per good food safety practices."
Additional reporting by Dean Napolitano.
沒有留言:
張貼留言